国外有人对Google上 EE Spreadsheet进行了一些分析,根据当前表内的分数构成、当前每个月捞人的数量以及表内人数占实际申请人数的比例,其实可以大致推断出日后的分数走势。
目前CIC捞人的数量大约在3200人左右(每月2次),根据往年的经验, 出现在spread sheet中的人数大约是总申请人数的4% - 5%左右。所以可以进行如下推算:
若spread sheet中占总人数的比例为5.5%
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 437
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 427
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 415
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 409
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 400
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 394
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 388
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 384
若spread sheet中占总人数的比例为5.0%
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 438
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 429
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 419
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 413
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 408
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 401
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 396
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 392
若spread sheet中占总人数的比例为4.5%
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 439
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 432
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 423
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 417
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 412
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 409
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 403
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 399
若spread sheet中占总人数的比例为4.0%
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 441
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 435
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 428
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 421
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 416
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 413
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 411
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 407
这些数据有一定的参考意义,不过个人认为不管这个表占总人数的比例是多少,分数的实际下降速度应快于这个推断,有以下几个原因:
1)该表中的申请人应该英文能力更好,否则不一定有能力找到这里把自己的信息放进去,所以不在表中的申请人的平均分数肯定低于表中人的平均分数
2)该表的用户包含的中国人的数量非常少,而中国人的平均语言能力也是低于该表水平的
3)CIC捞人的速度仍然有上升趋势,个人认为一个月3200人可能仍然低于CIC每年想要的人的数量
综合国外的分析及个人的一些推断,380 - 400分左右年内被捞中只是时间问题,个人觉得7月分数降到400以内的概率应该大于80%